Why the iPad Will Be a Huge Success

Here’s the Question of the Moment: What’s the point of Apple’s new iPad, really? It’s too big to carry around like a phone, and it’s too cumbersome and under-powered to take the place of a laptop. Sure, techies love the thing, but among mainstream consumers the much-hyped introduction of the iPad has been greeted with a collective shrug. Many have asked, “Who needs it? How will it fit into my life?”

Those are fair questions, especially because Apple wants the iPad to kick-start an entirely new category of computing. Yet if that’s the goal, it also comes as little surprise that the iPad has left many people scratching their heads. Precisely because the iPad is so new, it’s not obvious what niche it’s designed to fill. We all know Steve Jobs is a very talented entrepreneur and an amazing visionary. So what does he see here?

When I look at the device — and specifically, it’s basic design and configuration — the logic of the iPad becomes crystal-clear. I see a product that reveals the elements of Apple’s strategy which will ultimately make the iPad a huge success.

Now, I don’t have any inside information about the iPad. I didn’t work on the iPad development effort, and Apple hasn’t sent me a prototype unit to test-drive. In fact, I’ve never seen an iPad up-close, nor touched one with my own hands. Yet based on 20 years of experience designing high-tech hardware, there’s a lot I can infer about the iPad simply by looking at Apple’s spec-sheets, communications, and publicly available images of it. That’s enough to give me confidence that the iPad will transform the world of personal computing. Here’s why:

Apple Sees the Gap

With the iPad, Apple is basically asserting: this is not a computer. It’s not a phone. It’s a home media device. Just as people didn’t understand initially that the iPhone wasn’t a phone but a mobile computing device, the iPad isn’t really a computer; it’s a personal media consumption and browsing device.

Online media is now a rich enough environment that there’s plenty of content to browse and consume. There’s also a hole that exists between the laptop and the cellphone. The gap is defined by an experience that’s optimized for content consumption, rather than creation. Or, to put it another way, an experience that’s built around sitting back, rather than leaning forward.

That’s been true for a while, but what’s new today is that the cost of hardware components like processors, memory, storage and flat-panel screens has come way down. We now also have an ample supply of media that’s optimized for such a platform — music, TV, movies, books, magazines, newspapers, and photos, all of which are available via the Internet cloud. Plus, Apple already has an excellent content-distribution pipe, in the form of iTunes and the App Store.

So in a way, what’s really new here is not the device, but our access to a ready supply of appropriate media. Many of us already live online, so we’re ready for a device that’s specifically focused on allowing us to consume that media while sitting on the couch.

Think Portable, Not M0bile

The fact that the iPad comes standard with built-in Wi-Fi, with 3G wireless sold as an option, is significant: it tells us that the iPad is meant to be a portable device, not necessarily a mobile device. In other words, the assumption is that we will typically access content in familiar settings where we know Wi-Fi connectivity is assured; namely, the home.

In the home there are lot’s of opportunities to have a convenient, comfortable browsing experience. The home is also a perfect environment to introduce a persistent and personal digital content device, rather than a computer or laptop, which tend to dominate space. I suspect most iPads will spend lots of time sitting unobtrusively in the most relaxed and casual parts of the home: on the nightstand, on the coffee table, or on the kitchen counter. They will become a seamless part of our domestic lives.

The iPhone hints at what this change will be like, because the iPhone made the bridge into another space beyond typical computing — a space that’s more spontaneous, more social, and more convenient. Pulling out and opening up a laptop tends to break up a conversation. But making a point by pulling out an iPhone is not. The iPad will be like that, but even more so. If the iPhone was the mobile convergence device, the iPad will become the home convergence device, and it will do it so elegantly that we’ll quickly forget what life was like before it existed.

Mind Your McLuhan

The fact that the iPad incorporates a touchscreen interface is not just a nifty feature; it’s a key characteristic of what the iPad is all about. Touch will be an essential element of how we interact with content. As media theorist Marshall McLuhan put it, “The medium is the message.” In the case of the iPad, that means gestural interactions will transform the way we experience content and how content is designed for the device.

Why? A touch interface requires the user to pay full attention. With a keyboard you can do something else at the same time. But touch is fully immersive. It requires the user to both look at and be physically engage with the device. That fact isn’t merely a peculiarity of the user experience — it quite literally defines it, in ways that will change the way we experience familiar forms of content.

Take iTunes, for example. It will be fascinating to see how iTunes will be different on a larger-screen device. On a laptop, the iTunes experience is still somewhat detached, because we choose music via the keyboard or laptop. But as anyone who ever owned an LP, cassette, or CD collection knows, it’s different when you navigate music with your fingers. Physical interaction with content shapes the way we use content in a fundamental and very personal way. The best content experiences on the iPad will be the ones that understand and exploit that basic truth.

The Hardware is Trivial

There’s nothing unusual going on inside the iPad. Internally, the iPad is not particularly differentiated in any meaningful way, and there’s nothing all that unique about the hardware. By and large, it’s just like other tablets we’ve seen demonstrated over the years by companies like Nvidia or Intel.

Well, I’m exaggerating a bit: The iPad’s 10-inch projected capacitive touchscreen interface is pushing the technology hard and the A4 processor is likely the latest generation of ARM devices that are screaming fast. But these are Moore’s Law advances, not fundamental shifts.

Of course, the iPad will be very Apple — meaning, it will embrace Apple’s usual quality and exquisite attention to detail. For example, I suspect the big border around the screen of the iPad is there on purpose, probably to protect the screen from the reality of being dropped while also providing a place to rest your thumbs or your palms. It’s safe to assume that’s the kind of thing Apple identified through lots of prototyping. It’s a classic Apple touch; allowing enough time in the development process to think through all the product development, user-experience, and interface questions that a new product category generates.

But in the end, the hardware is just a sideshow. The iPad is really just a delivery platform for the back-end, and the back-end is content.

Interface is Essential

Apple found success on the iPhone by trimming complexity. That’s a favorite Steve Jobs approach –- less is more — which so many companies fail to understand. The iPhone has a touch interface and just one button, and the commitment to that form factor forced Apple to eliminate complexity. The result was that simplicity is a big part of what makes the iPhone OS so compelling. The commitment to simplicity also completes computing’s transition from content-creation to content-consumption devices.

Traditional operating systems were structured for desktop PC form-factors — with a laptop and mouse — for creating content. After all, they were originally replacements for typewriters, designed to do the same kinds of things typewriters once did. The iPhone defined a new paradigm built around content consumption, and the iPad takes that to the next step by creating a content consumption device with the same scale and resolution as a traditional PC. But it’s more than that; the bigger size and form factor makes the iPad a much more compelling window on your content.

Developers creating apps for the iPad will operate in a similar environment of enforced-simplicity. Apple’s software development kit (SDK) is very object-oriented and highly structured, both architecturally and graphically. That forces certain types of outcomes, and imposes a fair amount of conformity among apps. It’s limiting in a way, but in the end it usually ends up being satisfying, because the tools make it easy to create apps that look and feel really great. It’s a virtuous circle in that way: Apple’s SDK is a rewarding environment for developers, so more people develop for it, which makes the entire ecosystem more interesting. We’ve seen how that’s true for the iPhone, so it’s exciting to know there will be a slew of superb iPad-optimized apps — even though we have no idea what they are yet.

New Interactions, New Questions

Although there’s no doubt the iPad will be sophisticated, it will present a lot of challenging usability issues — some of which are beyond Apple’s control.

Like, what posture do we use when we watch video on the iPad? Do we hold it in our lap? Do we have a special accessory to hold it? It will also be interesting to see how the device survives drop-testing. Phones do that well, but laptops don’t. Is it built like a phone or like a more fragile device? How will my iPad experience sync with my iPhone? Will I have the same apps? Will they have the same arrangement? Or will they be separate? Is the iPad a slave device, or is it a master?

Other things that can go wrong: a deluge of advertising in apps could ruin the app experience. Granted, app developers have to make money somehow — and not enough of them are making money now — so the advertising model has the potential to make their work more viable. But it also has the potential to turn off many customers, because intrusive ads do degrade the content experience.

All this stems from the fact that the iPad has a much bigger screen than the iPhone. The small size of the iPhone screen enforced a kind of simplicity and focus — there’s simply not much room for ads on the iPhone. But the larger iPad runs the risk of becoming overwhelming, with complex page layouts and competing elements, much like many of today’s Web pages.

It makes me feel old to say this, but it reminds me of the transition the Internet went through after the early days of BBSs, as the simple, elegant, anti-commercial ethos was overwhelmed by new users and the shift to the Web. The result today is that commercial websites are constantly at war with themselves over how to monetize every possible square inch of page real estate, and the user experience suffers dramatically. Google has figured out how to mediate this so the commercialism doesn’t overwhelm you. Will Apple figure out a similar path?

In the next installment of his column for CNET, MOTO Development Group president Gregor Berkowitz examines the Olympus EP-1, an all-new digital camera designed to look like a classic SLR from the 1960s.

Why did Olympus give a digital camera the New Beetle treatment?

It’s simple: Point-and-shoot digital cameras are threatened by a new generation of camera-equipped mobile phones that actually take pretty good pictures. To fend off extinction, camera manufacturers are scrambling to create products that offer functionality no mobile phone could ever hope to match.

In the case of the EP-1, those highlights include Mad Men-era styling, removable lenses, and a fast (1/4000), mechanical shutter that makes a satisfying *click* when you take a picture. The iPhone will never offer any of those features, of course, which suggests that the EP-1 wants to be something more than just a high-quality camera. It also aspires to be a lifestyle accessory for people who want to show the world that they are serious photography enthusiasts.

To learn more about all the ways in which that ideal was incorporated into the design of the EP-1, read the full CNET column.

A few months back, the folks at CNET invited us to write a column about the latest consumer electronics gadgets to provide insights into the design and and manufacturing decisions that go into making them. Now, at long last, the first of these columns has gone live, and we really like the way it turned out.

In our first Design Review, MOTO Development Group president Gregor Berkowitz takes a look at the Sony X Series Walkman NWZ-X1051, a touch-screen music player with 16GB of storage, built-in Wi-Fi capability, and big ambitions to take on Apple’s wildly successful line of iPod music players. The NWZ-X1051 definitely reflects Sony’s decades of experience building Walkman audio players, but there are also aspects of this device that take the brand in an entirely new direction. Will that combination be enough to put Sony back on the map? Read the column to find out.